With the recent fervor surrounding the Morbius motion picture sending sales prices for the remarkable Spider-Man #101 (1971) soaring sky-high, lots of speculators that are late to the game might be turning to the 2nd print of the book. They look alike and probably smell alike, but are they alike in market performance?
Looking at the sales data for the remarkable Spider-Man #101 (graded CGC 9.8, representing the top 45.0% of the census), we observe that the only significant event was a spike in prices around wintertime 2017. This was likely mostly due to the official Sony pictures announcement of a solo Morbius motion picture in development. After the spike in sales prices, the market for the 2nd print considering that has returned to prior levels of the low 100s.
Is this just the normal effects of speculation associated with solo motion picture fervor? Fortunately, we can look to the sales data of the 1st print. See below for sales at a similar cross-section of the census, CGC 8.0 which is the top 42.3% of the census. The 1st print is in orange, the 2nd print is in blue.
At each price spike, the main difference between the two prints is that the 1st print not only experiences a much higher jump in sales prices but a lot more importantly a sustained higher sales range. The two crucial events occurred in late 2017 with the announcement of the motion picture development and in mid-2018 with the titular character’s casting. notice the two very distinct steps.
With nearly half a year until the worldwide release of the movie, it could be a good time to unload any holding of the book as sales prices of motion picture speculation books tend to decline following the movie’s release; with Morbius, it’s tentatively late July 2020. For someone wondering whether or not the market for the book will continue to go higher after the movie’s release, just keep in mind the sales prices considering that 2015; the 2015 to 2017 levels, or even the early 2018 levels. It would be a good idea to take some money off the table and step on to the next spec.
Given all of this, one has to wonder, if the solo motion picture hadn’t occurred, would the 2nd print have done just as well? See below for a a lot more magnified and focused look at the sales data of the two prints in the three years prior to any motion picture news. Again, 1st print in orange and 2nd print in blue.
In the 3 years prior, volatility was rather high with a large sales range, but even with that, the overall trend of the 2nd print was rather flat while the 1st print slowly trended upwards with higher highs and higher lows. given the market preference for the 1st print over the 2nd print, it’s no wonder the market of the 1st print benefited from motion picture speculation.
To add insult to injury, although a 9.8 on a CGC slab looks good, if a buyer had instead selected a CGC 8.0 in early 2015 while the sales ranges had briefly overlapped, the current return on investment would be even a lot more impressive. A whopping $700 difference. There is absolutely a market preference for the real McCoy.
“Instead of curing my affliction, I have made it stronger.” – Morbius
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